In October 2022, US inflation fell to 6.3 percent at fixed rates. In November, this inflation fell to 6.0 percent, with interest rates rising to 3.75 to 4 percent. In December, this inflation fell to 5.7 percent with an interest rate of 4.25 to 4.5 percent.

So even though core inflation is down, which is good news, interest rates are still lower than core inflation. So interest rates need to rise due to the US target of 2 percent core inflation. That way, maybe the interest rate target is around 2 percent. Then US interest rates will still rise; people estimate 5–5.2 percent because it is estimated that core inflation in April will already be lower than interest rates, said Rufiyanto in the Indonesia Investment Education webinar on Saturday, January 21, 2023.

Assuming the US raises interest rates in January, February, and March, it is likely that interest rates and core inflation will be the same.

In Indonesia, inflation is kept relatively stable by keeping the benchmark interest rate above it.So there is no need to increase interest rates to overcome inflation. The increase in interest rates following the Fed is to avoid weakening the rupiah against the US dollar.

Panin Asset Management sees that in 2023 US core inflation will continue to fall so that interest rates will rise maybe 2-3 more times after that; it does not rule out the possibility of going down at the end of the year. If that scenario occurs, this will be a good year for bonds, said Rudi.

So, in the capital market, it's not just stock mutual funds. Rudi said bond mutual funds could also be an investment option for either rupiah or USD bonds. If US interest rates fall, bond prices will rise. So this year is a good year for bonds.

But investors need to be careful because people are starting to realize the bright prospects of bonds. In his note, Rudi said that in January, the increase in bond prices had been too high, reaching 2 percent.

"In just two weeks, we've gained nearly 2%. If the stock normally rises by 2% per day, If it's on OB, it goes up 2 percent per month. Overall, until the end of the year, it was still good, but the January bond rally was too fast," he concluded.